According to reports, Iran has closed shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, following which governments and oil refineries of various countries are assessing their reserves.
इजरायल-ईरान जंग से तेल में लगी आग, कीमतों में 7 फ़ीसदी से ज़्यादा की उछाल
Global crude oil prices surged by more than 7 percent on Monday as the war in West Asia escalated. This surge came after the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran.
Brent crude oil futures rose to $82.37 per barrel, their highest level since January 2025. Brent crude oil prices rose 7.60 percent to $78.41 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 7.19 percent to $71.86 per barrel.
According to reports, Iran has blocked shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, prompting governments and refineries to assess their reserves.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to increase oil production from next month. Major members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will produce an additional 260,000 barrels per day.
Analysts say the US and Israeli attacks are a major geopolitical setback, raising global oil risk premiums and increasing demand for safe-haven investments like gold and silver.
Rajiv Sharan, Head of Benchmarking, Model Development and Research at Brickwork Ratings, said, “India imports approximately 90 percent of its crude oil. Consequently, a continued rise in Brent crude prices will increase fuel prices, fuel inflation, and widen the current account deficit. This could impact the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation control policy and delay interest rate cuts.”
Indian stock markets have already entered a risk-averse mode. Increased volatility, foreign investor outflows, and pressure on the automotive, financial, and energy-based sectors are expected.
As long as the risk of escalating tensions persists, precious metals are likely to find support.
Sharan said the added cost of the conflict will only decrease if there is clarity about the leadership in Tehran, concrete efforts to de-escalate tensions, and assurances that vital oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz remain open.
According to reports, if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, the price of Brent crude could rise above $90 per barrel. In the event of a broader regional conflict, it could even exceed $100 per barrel.
JM Financial Institutional Securities stated in a report that every $1 increase in crude oil prices increases India’s annual import bill by approximately $2 billion, putting pressure on the trade balance.
About 20 percent of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and more than 40 percent of India’s crude oil imports come through this route. In the near future, market sentiment may depend more on oil prices than corporate earnings.
Prolonged tensions could increase transportation and marine insurance costs, disrupt sea routes in the Gulf region, and put additional pressure on the trade balance.
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